Unsurprisingly, there is a very strong correspondence between the religiosity of a state and its propensity to ban gay marriage, with a particular "bonus" effect depending on the number of white evangelicals in the state.I'm over-simplifying -- really he's saying that by 2024, a constitutional ban on same-sex marriage would no longer have a majority of votes. But still, it's an interesting prediction.
Marriage bans, however, are losing ground at a rate of slightly less than 2 points per year. So, for example, we'd project that a state in which a marriage ban passed with 60 percent of the vote last year would only have 58 percent of its voters approve the ban this year.
Over at 538, Nate predicts that same-sex marriage will be legal in Mississippi in less than 20 years: