Yesterday my team had a big launch. I didn't do any of the work but I got to introduce it, so here's me at Google's Campfire One:
Over at 538, Nate predicts that same-sex marriage will be legal in Mississippi in less than 20 years:
Unsurprisingly, there is a very strong correspondence between the religiosity of a state and its propensity to ban gay marriage, with a particular "bonus" effect depending on the number of white evangelicals in the state.I'm over-simplifying -- really he's saying that by 2024, a constitutional ban on same-sex marriage would no longer have a majority of votes. But still, it's an interesting prediction.
Marriage bans, however, are losing ground at a rate of slightly less than 2 points per year. So, for example, we'd project that a state in which a marriage ban passed with 60 percent of the vote last year would only have 58 percent of its voters approve the ban this year.